260330 奥利弗·凯尔：如何成为全职交易员

Oliver Kell on Becoming a Full-Time Trader

All right, today is the 7th of February in 2024. I’m Jason Shapiro with Crowded Market Report, and today I have the pleasure of speaking with Oliver Kell, who is a successful stock trader. I like this because he trades equities, which I don’t do as a futures trader. From what I understand, and he’ll explain more, he’s more of a momentum equities trader, which I’m also not. So hopefully we can all learn a heck of a lot about trading equities from a momentum perspective from somebody who has done it pretty successfully. So Oliver, thanks for coming on and welcome.

好，今天是 2024 年 2 月 7 日，我是来自 Crowded Market Report 的 Jason Shapiro。今天很高兴邀请到 Oliver Kell。他是一位成功的股票交易员。我很喜欢这一点，因为他交易股票，而我作为期货交易员并不做股票交易。按我的理解，稍后他也会进一步展开，他更偏向于做股票动量交易，而我自己也不是这一类交易员。所以希望我们今天都能从一位在这条路上做得相当成功的人这里，学到很多关于股票动量交易的内容。Oliver，感谢你来，欢迎。

Yeah, thanks for having me. I’ll just say this real quick. When I looked at your background a little bit, we need to get you and another guy that I interviewed a few months ago, Darius Dale, and we have the makings of a pretty good offense. We have the beginnings of a pretty good offense from what I could tell, because Darius was a great offensive lineman.

对，感谢邀请。我先快速说一句，我稍微看了一下你的背景，我觉得得把你和我几个月前采访过的另一个人 Darius Dale 放到一起。照我看，我们已经有了一套很不错的进攻阵容的雏形，因为 Darius 以前可是很出色的进攻线球员。

Oh, all right. Yeah, I mean I love good offensive linemen, you know, that’s what I’m saying. So we get the two of you, find nine more guys, and we can get something going.

好啊。我很喜欢优秀的进攻线球员，所以我才这么说。把你们两个凑到一起，再找九个人，我们就能把事情做起来。

Yeah, good offensive linemen make life a million times easier.

对，优秀的进攻线球员会让很多事情轻松太多。

I would say so, yeah. He’s also a really good guy and a really smart guy. So why don’t you tell us a little bit about your background and what led you to this life of lunacy, and then we can get into a little bit about how you approach it.

我同意。他人也很好，也很聪明。所以你不妨先讲讲自己的背景，以及是什么把你带进了这条有点疯狂的交易道路。然后我们再聊聊你的交易方法。

Yeah, so kind of my career trajectory is that right out of college I went and prop traded at what I would basically consider a modern-day bucket shop type of place. You put up 5K, you get to trade their capital, but once you bust your 5K all of a sudden you don’t get to trade their capital anymore. So I did that right out of college. I was going to make millions of dollars, all the stuff you think when you’re 22 years old, and I lost like half of my account or whatever, I don’t know, two or three grand, and I realized that I had no idea what I was doing.

对，我大致的职业路径是这样。大学毕业之后，我先去了一家我现在基本会归类为“现代版 bucket shop”的地方做 proprietary trading。你拿出 5000 美元，就能交易他们的资金；但一旦那 5000 美元亏没了，你也就没资格再用他们的资金了。我大学刚毕业时就去了那里，当时脑子里全是 22 岁的人会有的那些想法，觉得自己马上就要赚几百万。结果我很快亏掉了账户的一半，大概两三千美元，然后我意识到，自己根本不知道自己在做什么。

So I stopped doing that and I ended up getting a job at what I would consider more of a legitimate type of prop firm. It was a group of five or six former prop traders that went out and started their own fund, I guess, but they were basically trading their own book. I got to be an assistant for two of the guys and they did international arbitrage. It was cool because one of my mentors was very attracted to risk, definitely more of a swinger, and the other guy, he’d be down like a thousand bucks and you’d think the world was ending, and he pretty much made money every day but was just so conservative. So I kind of got to witness both mental approaches.

于是我就停掉了那条路，后来去了一家我认为更正规一点的机构工作，算是 prop firm 也可以，但本质上更像是五六个前 prop trader 出来之后自己搭了一个基金，主要交易自己的 book。我在那里给两个人做助理，他们做的是国际套利。那段经历很有意思，因为其中一位导师非常偏好风险，风格明显更激进；另一位如果一天亏一千美元，你会感觉像天要塌下来一样，但他几乎天天赚钱，而且风格极度保守。所以我等于同时看到了两种完全不同的心理结构。

But that fund went under. You can probably use your imagination as to why or how. Then I went and worked at an institutional brokerage where I traded for big institutions, basically executing their orders. People who didn’t want to hire an internal trader, we would basically trade their book. So I knew their positions, I knew what they were trying to do, and it was eye-opening. I understand how bases are built. I bought hundreds of thousands of shares of the same stock every day for months, stuff like that.

后来那个基金倒了，具体为什么、怎么倒的，你大概也能想象。再之后，我去了一家机构经纪商，给大型机构执行交易。很多机构不想自己雇内部交易员，我们就帮他们执行订单。那段经历很开眼界，因为我能看到他们的仓位，也知道他们想做什么。我也因此真正理解了一个底部是怎么被做出来的——比如连续几个月每天买同一只股票几十万股，这种事我都做过。

The whole time I was kind of trading my own account. Then from there I got into sales in various capacities, mutual funds and then software, and I just traded my own account the whole time until I had enough money to go out on my own. Now I just trade for myself. That’s been my career trajectory, I guess.

与此同时，我一直也在交易自己的账户。再后来，我又做过销售，经历过不同岗位，先是共同基金，后是软件销售，但这期间我一直都在交易自己的账户。等资金积累到足够程度，我就出来单干了。现在我就是纯粹为自己交易。大体上，这就是我的职业路径。

As far as how I was introduced to the market, my dad was a market maker on the PSSE, so I guess you could say it was sort of the family business. We would go into the floor when we had half days of school and watch the close, stuff like that. So my sort of view on the market was always the floor, all the excitement and all that.

至于我最早是怎么接触市场的，我父亲以前是 PSSE 的做市商，所以某种程度上也算是家里的行当。我们小时候如果学校半天课，就会去交易大厅看收盘，看那些场面。所以我对市场最初的印象，一直都是交易大厅、喧闹、兴奋、那种现场感。

But I also got to see some of the bad sides of trading. My dad blew up twice and that wasn’t necessarily the best situation. So I’m not naive to it. I don’t really see Lamborghinis and Ferraris like a lot of people do. Unfortunately, I kind of know how brutal the market can be.

但与此同时，我也看到了交易很糟糕的一面。我父亲有过两次爆仓，那都不是什么好经历。所以我对市场没有那种很天真的幻想。我不会像很多人那样，把交易首先联想到兰博基尼、法拉利之类的东西。说得现实一点，我知道市场有多残酷。

And then when I was in college, really the last thing I wanted to do was anything involving trading, just because of that. But I didn’t really know what to do, and I had a buddy who was a year older than me who I was pretty good friends with. He was prop trading, he sent me some books, I started reading them, and next thing I knew that’s what I was doing. And now here I am, what, 15 years later. So that’s pretty much my story.

到了大学时，我真正最不想做的事情，其实就是和交易有关的事。但我当时也不知道自己到底该做什么。我有个比我高一级、关系很好的朋友，他当时在做 prop trading。他给我寄了几本书，我开始看，结果不知不觉我就走上了这条路。到现在，差不多已经 15 年了。这基本就是我的故事。

Cool. And I guess your big claim to fame was at one point, I forget which year, maybe 2020, you won the U.S. Trading Championship, which is a real-money trading championship.

不错。而且你最出名的一件事，大概是在某一年——我有点记不清了，可能是 2020 年——你拿到了美国交易冠军赛的冠军。那可是实盘资金参赛的交易比赛。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, made like 900% or something like that.

对，对，对，收益大概做到了 900% 左右。

Yeah, I mean it’s a pretty, pretty good market. I don’t know if I’ve made 900% in my entire freaking career. If I did, I lost it all six months later. But that’s cool. So why don’t we get into, from what I understand, and please correct me if I’m wrong, I think that you’re a follower of the whole CANSLIM method. Is that correct?

那真是很夸张的成绩。说实话，我都不知道自己整个职业生涯加起来有没有做过 900%；如果真做过，可能六个月后也吐回去了。不过这确实很厉害。那我们往下聊。按我的理解，如果我说错了你纠正我，我感觉你是 CANSLIM 这一整套方法的追随者，对吗？

William O’Neal definitely introduced me to looking at charts more. I would not say that I follow the CANSLIM strategy, but I trade growth stocks. Typically I like to trade more liquid names that are momentum names near the highs, and what I do is I use the 10- and 20-period moving averages as an objective overlay on whatever I’m trading, and then I’m basically just looking to trade higher highs and higher lows.

William O’Neil 确实把我带进了更多看图表的路径，但我不会说自己是在照着 CANSLIM 策略交易。我通常交易成长股，偏爱流动性更好的动量型股票，尤其是在接近高位、趋势活跃的时候出手。我的做法是，把 10 日和 20 日均线作为一层比较客观的框架，覆盖在我交易的标的上，然后我主要就是抓更高的高点和更高的低点。

So if I find something in a trend, I try to trade the trend until it’s not a trend anymore, and I try to use the 10- and 20-period moving average to help me be objective. That’s in a nutshell more or less what I do. There are some intricacies to that, but at the end of the day, that’s what I do.

所以，只要我找到一个处在趋势中的标的，我就尽量沿着这个趋势去交易，直到它不再处在趋势里。10 日和 20 日均线对我来说，主要作用就是帮助我保持客观。这大体上就是我的交易方法。当然里面也有一些更细的细节，但总体上就是这样。

So do you long and short, or are you primarily long?

那你是多空都做，还是以做多为主？

I will short, but I’m probably like 90, as far as where I’ve made money, probably 99% to the long side.

我会做空，但如果从赚钱来源去看，可能 99% 都来自多头。

All right, so then let’s focus on how you’re looking to go long. We don’t really have to get into short since you don’t really short. You’re looking for a stock whose 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average?

好，那我们就重点聊你怎么做多。既然你做空占比不高，这部分可以先放一放。你的意思是，你会去找 10 日均线在 20 日均线之上的股票？

Yeah, or if it’s setting up right underneath it. I like to buy when it’s getting ready to cross. I like to buy out of what I call bases, but not in the way a CANSLIM trader would. I’m looking for mini bases, maybe like a five- to ten-day tight range, and if we can take it out I like to get long. Then I use the weekly, the daily, and I judge the higher highs and higher lows on the 65-minute chart, and I just try to stick with the trend.

对，或者它正在均线下方整理、准备往上穿的时候，我也会买。我喜欢买那种正在准备上穿的形态。我也会说“base”，但这个 base 可能和典型 CANSLIM 交易员的定义不太一样。我更多找的是 mini base，比如一个持续 5 到 10 天的紧凑区间。如果价格向上突破这个区间，我就会做多。然后基本上我会同时看周线、日线，再用 65 分钟图去判断更高的高点和更高的低点，尽量沿着趋势持有。

So it sort of does a breakout, comes out of this base, 10-day crosses the 20-day, you’re getting long pretty much, and as long as the thing is continuing with higher highs and higher lows, you want to ride it.

也就是说，价格先从这个 base 里突破出来，10 日均线穿越 20 日均线，你就会进场做多；只要它继续走出更高的高点和更高的低点，你就会继续持有。

Exactly. And when things get too stretched I like to take a little off, just because if I have to give a ton back to my stop, I might take a little bit off. But overall I try to ride it until I see a clear indication that, hey, you should sell this thing, like a big reversal bar or something just way too far away from its moving averages.

对，就是这样。如果价格拉得太开，我会适当减一点仓。原因很简单，如果离止损太远，回撤空间会变得很大，我可能会先锁一点利润。但整体上，我会尽量拿着，直到看到非常明确的卖出信号，比如一根很大的反转 bar，或者价格偏离均线过远，进入很极端的状态，那我通常就会先把钱拿回来一部分。

Is that a systematic thing or just kind of a feel thing?

这是系统化的规则，还是更偏盘感？

It’s sort of a feel thing. I see people who try to systematize it, but I think each stock in a way has its own personality. One stock where 10%, like Apple, might get five or ten percent above the 10-day and that’s really extended, whereas another stock might move 10% in an afternoon. So you have to take into account the stock and its personality when you’re doing that stuff. Also the market and the environment. Sometimes, obviously lately, the market’s been very conducive to holding positions and giving them more room, whereas in a less advantageous tape you want to be booking profits more quickly. I think that’s a huge thing.

更偏盘感。我知道有些人会想把这套东西系统化，但我觉得很多股票都有自己的波动特征。有的股票，比如 Apple，涨到高于 10 日均线 5% 到 10%，可能就已经非常偏离了；但有些股票涨 10%，可能只是半天行情。所以你在处理这类问题时，必须把股票自身的波动特征也考虑进去。同时也要看市场环境。有些阶段，市场很适合拿仓位，也适合给标的更大的波动空间；在另一些环境里，行情并不友好，那你就应该更快地兑现利润。我觉得这个差别非常关键。

So you’re using quite a bit of discretion on a lot of this stuff as well, in terms of how the market is trading in your view and which stocks are conducive to being far above the moving average and which ones are not.

所以你在很多环节里都会加入相当多的主观裁量，包括怎么看当前市场环境，以及哪些股票适合大幅偏离均线，哪些不适合。

Yeah, but I also trade a lot of the same stocks. I know some people run a lot of scans and their universe is like thousands of stocks and then they trade all these different names. I’m trading a lot of the same names, and in reality I am not the person who’s building a 20-position portfolio. I’ve actually found it’s much easier for me to manage my risk when I have a lot of money in a couple of names.

对。不过我也经常反复交易同一些股票。我知道有些人会跑很多扫描，股票池里有几千只股票，然后不停切换不同标的。我不是那种风格。现实里，我并不是一个会去搭 20 个仓位组合的人。对我来说，资金集中在少数几个名字上，风险反而更容易管理。

So lately, probably the last two years, Nvidia has been the stock for me. It’s been the name to trade because it’s liquid, it moves, and it shows relative strength to the market. Why should I trade anything else when I can just focus on that? I mean, I have other positions, that’s not what I’m saying, but why should anybody trade anything else?

所以，过去大概两年里，Nvidia 一直是我最重要的交易标的。它流动性足，波动也够，而且相对大盘有明显强势。如果有这样一个标的摆在面前，为什么还要把精力分散出去？我当然也有其他仓位，我不是这个意思，但如果核心标的已经足够好，确实没有太多理由去东打一枪西打一枪。

Yeah, so you caught the Nvidia move. Why don’t we go into that a little bit, and I don’t want you to give up any of your secrets or anything you don’t want to tell me, but if I’m looking at this Nvidia stock, I guess we’ll talk post-2022, right? So we could argue Nvidia kind of started to break out in the first quarter of ‘23.

所以你抓住了 Nvidia 这一大段行情。我们不妨往下拆一拆，我也不想让你把不愿意公开的细节都讲出来，但如果我看 Nvidia 这只股票，我们大概可以从 2022 年之后开始聊，对吧？也就是说，它大概在 2023 年一季度开始进入突破。

Yeah, so I really got on this thing, I want to say it was six or five, just when I look at the weekly chart it had a higher low there on the weekly, and then it had, I actually have to go back and look at the daily, but I remember it had like a five- or six-day mini base on the daily. It had one, two, three, four, five, it had six days tight, and it traded up through the 10/20 EMA, I guess. And then you can just see it followed the 10- and 20-period moving average just higher. That’s what it did. It just went.

对，我真正上车，大概是在那个位置。当时我看周线，它先形成了一个更高的低点。然后如果我没记错的话，日线上也做出了一个五到六天的小型整理平台。我现在要回头看日线才更准确，但我记得大概就是这样：一共六天横住，区间很紧，然后价格向上穿越了 10/20 EMA。之后走势就很清楚了，它基本就是沿着 10 日和 20 日均线一路往上推，这就是它当时的运行方式。

For this whole move I didn’t hold the whole move. I took a couple different trades in it, some multi-week, multi-month trades, and last year this is where I made over 60% of my money, was in Nvidia.

这一整段行情里，我并没有从头抱到尾，但我在里面做了几笔不同的交易，其中有些拿了几周，有些拿了几个月。去年我超过 60% 的收益，都来自 Nvidia。

So you get long this stock in whatever, early January, because it’s breaking out. How do you handle things like, where do you trade with stops, and how do you handle your sizing? How do you decide how much you want to size, and is that a formula or a feel?

所以你大概是在一月初之类的位置，因为它突破而做多。那这类交易你怎么处理？你会设止损吗？仓位又怎么决定？你怎么决定要做多大？这是公式化的，还是更偏主观？

I generally try to risk no more than 50 bips when I put a trade on.

我的做法大致是，开仓时通常会把风险控制在组合的 50 个基点以内。

Fifty bips of your portfolio?

是组合的 50 个基点？

Yeah. But I will buy, and if it moves up a little I will add and raise my stop. So I will get pretty big positions, but it’s dependent on how I’m able to buy the stock. If something just absolutely rips, I actually don’t like that. I’d rather something go up for maybe two or three days and then go sideways for two or three days and then I can buy more and raise my stop. So basically maybe I have twice as big of a position and I actually have no risk on it, assuming I don’t have a huge gap down or something. That’s the best-case scenario for me, because then if it does work and it continues higher, I have a big position but I haven’t taken on an enormous amount of risk to get on that big position. That’s really the ideal scenario for me and the goal with all my trades.

对。不过我会先买入，如果它再往上走一点，我会继续加仓，同时上移止损。所以我最终会拿到比较大的仓位，但这取决于我能以什么样的节奏买到这只股票。如果一个标的直接暴冲，我其实并不喜欢。我更愿意看到它先涨两三天，再横两三天，这样我就可以继续加仓，同时把止损提高。这样一来，也许我最后拿到的是原来两倍大的仓位，但实际上已经没有初始风险了，前提当然是别出现特别大的跳空低开。这种状态对我来说最理想，因为如果它后面继续上涨，我手里有足够大的仓位，但为了拿到这个仓位，我没有承受特别大的风险。这基本就是我所有交易追求的理想状态。

Whereas if something just absolutely explodes, I probably won’t get as big of a position and I’ll just kind of let it go, because at some point I don’t want to be adding to a name too late unless it resets up again and builds me a new mini base. Then I will. I did that in Nvidia this run. I bought another position after I had already scaled out some of my first position. I bought a second position under 600 because it gave me another opportunity, and then I scaled out a little bit of that second position a couple nights ago at 700. And now I have two good positions, and I haven’t updated everything yet, but my stop as of yesterday was at 636, which had both positions in the money and I can just kind of let it do its thing.

如果一个标的一路直接爆发式上涨，我大概率就拿不到太大的仓位，我会让它先走。因为到了某个阶段，我不想在太晚的位置继续往上追着加仓，除非它重新整理，重新搭出一个新的 mini base，那我会再买。Nvidia 这一轮我就是这么做的。第一笔仓位我已经减过一部分了，后来它在 600 美元下方又给了我一次新的机会，我又开了第二笔。前几天它到 700 美元附近时，我又减掉了第二笔中的一部分。现在我手里有两笔都不错的仓位。虽然我还没更新最新状态，但到昨天为止，我的止损在 636，这意味着两笔仓位都已经处于盈利状态，我可以让它自己继续走。

636 is some kind of moving average that you use as your stop, or so?

所以 636 是某条均线位置，你用它做止损吗？

636 is basically the second mini base. I started my second position on the 21st and we pushed out and gapped up and finished near the high of the day, and I call that an ignite bar, basically a good move, a nice bar on good volume, the type of thing where I wouldn’t want that entire bar to be lost or it’s a negative sign to me. That’s where I put my stop.

636 对应的是第二个 mini base 的位置。我第二笔仓位是在 21 号开始建的，之后价格向上突破，出现了跳空高开，收盘也接近日内高点。我把这种 bar 叫做 ignite bar，就是那种在较好成交量配合下走出的一根很漂亮的启动 K 线。对我来说，如果这整根 bar 后面都被跌回去，那就是负面信号。所以我会把止损放在这里。

Then just as things happen, as we go up, we pull back, and we reconfirm higher, that’s what I call it, I’ll adjust my stop higher as the stock moves higher. That’s literally what I do. It’s not that complicated in reality, not really rocket science. Buying a breakout, trailing a stop, that’s pretty much what I do. Buying a breakout, let it consolidate, buy the next breakout, maybe add to your position on the next breakout, trail your stop. That’s it. Classic kind of momentum trading.

之后随着价格继续往上走、再回撤、再重新确认更高位置——我会这么定义这个过程——我就继续把止损往上抬。随着股价上行，我的止损也同步上移。这就是我实际在做的事情。它本身并不复杂。归根到底，就是买突破、移动止损；价格整理之后，再买下一次突破，必要时继续加仓，然后继续移动止损。大致就是这样，很典型的动量交易。

Yeah, which works great, in particular in a bull market, right?

对，这套东西在牛市里尤其有效，对吧？

Yeah, absolutely. We are in one more than we are not, I would say. I hate the terms bull and bear market. I would definitely say we’re in a bull market, but I would just say we’re in an uptrending market, the market moving higher, and it moves higher until it doesn’t.

对，当然。我会说现在确实更接近牛市，但我其实不喜欢 bull market 和 bear market 这种说法。我会更愿意说，现在是一个上升趋势市场，市场在向上走，直到有一天它不再向上走。

That’s right, and then you get out anyway. So you’re never really going to get out on highs, it sounds like, because it’s going to pull back and get you and take you out.

对，然后你无论如何都会退出。所以听起来你基本不会在最高点离场，因为它总会回撤，把你震出去。

The only way I really get out into the highs is if we have an obvious blowoff, and that’s actually what I hope happens with all these positions because it’s a lot better than getting stopped out into weakness.

我真正会在高位主动离场的情况，通常是出现很明显的 blowoff。其实我希望手里这些仓位最后都走成这种形态，因为那总比在转弱过程中被止损打出去要舒服得多。

How do you define obvious blowoff? I mean people have been calling Nvidia an obvious blowoff for the last 250 points.

那你怎么定义 obvious blowoff？很多人过去 250 点里一直都在说 Nvidia 已经是 obvious blowoff 了。

I don’t really think Nvidia is a blowoff personally.

我个人并不觉得 Nvidia 现在属于 blowoff。

I don’t either, but people could make that argument because they certainly have.

我也不这么看，但确实一直有人在这么讲。

Well, yeah, they have. I sort of look at Nvidia here and it just broke out of a six-month, what I call a stage-two base, which is from William O’Neil. Usually you get three or four bases before a leading stock like Nvidia is really going to have a real top. And when I look at this, it just seems to me that it’s under consistent accumulation pretty much day to day.

对，确实一直有人这么说。但我看 Nvidia 当前这个位置，它其实刚刚突破了一个我会称作 stage-two base 的六个月整理平台，这个说法来自 William O’Neil。通常像 Nvidia 这种领涨股，在真正见到大顶部之前，会先走出三到四个 base。就当前这个阶段来看，我感受到的是它几乎每天都在被持续吸纳。

I mean Nvidia hasn’t even touched its 10-day moving average at all. This stock every day is getting accumulated. When I look at my 65-minute chart, which is sort of how I manage positions, it goes up, so it has what I call expansion, it moves up quickly and then it goes sideways in tight trade, right? And then it goes up quickly and maybe it pulls back, but it hasn’t had any distribution really at all. You could say it had some profit taking yesterday morning, but that was literally the absolute first sign of any form of profit taking the way I interpret things. It just ripped again anyway.

Nvidia 甚至都还没有真正碰到过它的 10 日均线。这只股票几乎每天都在被资金吸纳。就我用来管理仓位的 65 分钟图来看，它的节奏就是先快速上行，我把这叫作 expansion；然后横住，进入紧凑交易；接着再快速上行，也许中间会有一点回撤，但整体上几乎没有出现过真正意义上的 distribution。你可以说昨天早上出现了一点获利了结，但按我的理解，那几乎就是目前为止第一处能被算作获利回吐的信号。结果它后来又继续拉上去了。

Well, let me ask you this in a few ways. So you’re long Nvidia.

那我换个角度问。你现在是多头持有 Nvidia。

Yeah.

对。

And I’m glad you are, because I think you’re the first person I know that is actually long Nvidia. I mean, everybody I know wants to short Nvidia every day.

而且我很高兴你是多头，因为我感觉你可能是我认识的人里第一个真正持有 Nvidia 多头的人。我身边几乎所有人每天都想做空 Nvidia。

I think it’s going way higher.

我觉得它会走得更高。

Okay, so you think it’s going way higher. That’s awesome and I hope it does. But here we are, it’s at 700, 701. What changes your mind or forces you to change your mind? In other words, if we open up tomorrow at 850, are you getting out?

好，所以你判断它还会走得更高。很好，我也希望如此。但现在它在 700、701 这个位置。什么情况会让你改变想法，或者迫使你改变想法？换句话说，如果明天开盘直接到 850，你会不会卖出？

Man, that would be a good chunk of change. I’d probably take some off just because it would be ridiculous. The 10-day is about 650, so we’d be about 30% above the 10-day if that were the case, and just in my experience, 30% above the 10-day is probably where you want to take some Nvidia off.

那可是一大段利润了。我大概率会减一点仓，因为那种涨法会显得太夸张。现在 10 日均线大概在 650 左右，如果真开到 850，等于高出 10 日均线接近 30%。按我的经验，离 10 日均线高出 30% 左右，基本就属于应该兑现一部分 Nvidia 仓位的位置。

What about if we open up tomorrow at 620? What do you do at 620?

那如果明天开盘在 620 呢？620 你怎么处理？

At 620 I’d be out because my stop’s 636.

620 我会直接出，因为我的止损在 636。

Okay, so there we go. So your trailing stop is there. You’re not violating that one way or the other no matter what you think about Nvidia. It hits 636, you’re out, and then you’ll sit there—and this is something you obviously trade a lot—so you’ll sit there and wait until you get whatever you need to get to get back in the thing.

好，这就很清楚了。你的 trailing stop 就放在那里，无论你对 Nvidia 有多看好，你都不会突破这条线。只要打到 636，你就会离场。然后因为这只股票你交易得很多，所以你会继续盯着，等到下一个符合你条件的重新进场机会出现，再回来做。

Yeah, exactly. I’m not trying to sit through a six-month basing period or whatever. When this thing stops trending on the 10/20-period moving average, I’ll just get out and wait for it to set up again.

对，就是这样。我并不打算硬扛一个长达六个月的横盘整理阶段。只要这只股票不再沿着 10/20 均线维持趋势，我就会离场，然后等它重新走出 setup。

So during that period from, I guess it was like let’s call it July of last year up until kind of November of last year, which is what, August, September, about a five-month period, were you not involved in that whole move at that point?

那从去年七月到去年十一月左右，差不多五个月那段时间里，你是不是基本没有深度参与那一段走势？

I was trading it a little bit. I fortunately sold this really well. I had signals to get short when we lost the 10/20-period moving average, but it just kind of didn’t go down that much, so I ended up basically getting stopped out for minimal gains. I think I made like four or five percent after sitting in it for like three weeks, which for me is not what I’m trying to do.

我当时还是有在做，只是参与得比较有限。幸运的是，那一段我卖得还不错。跌破 10/20 均线时，我其实收到了做空信号，但它也没有往下走太多，所以最后我基本只是带着很小的利润被止损出去。我印象里，大概拿了三周，赚了 4% 到 5% 左右，但那不是我想要的交易效果。

Then I think I got long, and same deal, it had no power, it just kind of sucked. And then I was literally short when it broke 400 and I was wondering if it was going to sell more, and I actually literally got long that day. Then it looked really good. I was pumped about it. I took a little off before earnings in the third week of November, held the rest, and I ended up getting stopped out at like 470. It sucked because I really thought it was maybe for real. Then I actually got long again at like 475 maybe a month later.

后来我又试过做多，结果也差不多，走势就是没劲，不太行。再后来它跌破 400 那次，我手里其实还是空头仓位，当时我还在想会不会继续往下杀，但我真的就是在那一天反手做多了。之后一度看上去非常不错，我当时很兴奋。到了十一月第三周的财报前，我先减掉了一部分，剩下的继续拿着，最后大概在 470 被止损出去。那种感觉很差，因为我当时真的以为那一段可能会走成更大的趋势。后来大概一个月后，475 附近我又重新做多了一次。

So I had a bunch of trades that just didn’t really amount to much. I had some losers in there for sure, but net-net I made a little progress, not a ton. Now I caught this big trade, and that’s basically how it works for me. I stay involved and I just interpret things as best I can. I do the best I can based on my moving averages and how I trade. Some of the signals work big and some of them are just sort of crap.

所以那一段我其实做了不少笔交易，但大多数都没有真正跑出太大结果。中间当然也有亏损，但 net-net 看，账户还是往前挪了一点，只是幅度不大。后来这次大行情我终于抓住了。对我来说，事情大体就是这么运作的：我会持续参与，然后尽量根据自己的交易体系去解读走势。我就是围绕均线和自己的交易方式，尽力把每一次信号处理好。有些信号会带来很大的结果，有些信号最后就是不行。

Now I will say when I’m in that kind of range there, I never really got those opportunities to add and get big on my position, whereas in this current run, the way that we set up and the way that things built, I was able to get a pretty sizable position. That’s really kind of the difference. When it worked I had a really big position.

不过我也得说，在当时那种区间震荡环境里，我其实一直没有得到那种可以持续加仓、把仓位做大的机会。而在当前这一轮上涨里，setup 的构造方式、后续走势的推进方式，都给了我把仓位做大的条件。这就是两段行情之间真正的差别：这一次走出来的时候，我手里的仓位足够大。

I’m not sitting here saying I wasn’t frustrated during that basing period. I had trades that I thought, when I got this thing at 400, I really nailed my entry and I was feeling really good about it, and it worked. Looking back at it now it looks like it barely moved, but at the time it had moved like 100 points in three weeks and I was feeling pretty good about it. Then in the other half of the position I gave 40 points back. It sucked, but that’s just how it goes.

我并不是在说，那个横盘阶段我一点都不沮丧。其实我当时很沮丧。有些交易，比如我在 400 附近拿到那次，我当时觉得自己的进场点抓得很好，也真的很有信心。那笔交易其实也走出来了。现在回头看，你会觉得它几乎没怎么动，但在当时，它三周里涨了差不多 100 点，所以我当时的感觉其实很好。后来另一半仓位又回吐了 40 点利润，体验很差。但这就是交易的现实。

That’s the nature of the beast based on how you’re trading, momentum trading, right? There’ll be times when it’s not momentum and you’ll get tossed around a little bit.

按你的交易方式来说，这就是动量交易本来的样子，对吧？总会有一些阶段，市场没有持续动量，你就会被来回折腾。

Yeah, but then as long as you’re being disciplined and catching the momentum and adding the momentum and the momentum continues, that’s kind of your job.

对。但只要你在有纪律地抓住动量，在合适的位置加仓，随后趋势也继续延续，那就是你的工作。

I always say that with my trading. People are like, why aren’t you long, you’re bullish; why aren’t you short, you’re bearish. I’m like, because it’s not my job here to do that. That’s not what I do. Just because I’m bullish doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going to be long. That’s not my job. Your job is to trade momentum, because that’s what you want to do.

我对自己的交易也一直这么说。很多人会问，你既然看多，为什么不做多；你既然看空，为什么不做空。我会说，因为那不是我此刻的工作，那不是我的方法。就算我偏多，也不代表我此刻一定要持有多头。你的工作，就是交易动量，因为那才是你要做的事。

As long as you’re catching the momentum when it’s happening, okay, you get whipped around a little bit when it’s not happening, you get stopped out if the momentum dies, but in the meantime if the momentum’s going, you’re riding it and you’re making a crapload of money.

只要你在动量真正出现的时候抓住它，那么在没有动量的阶段被来回折腾一点、动量熄火时被止损出去，这些都属于体系的一部分。但只要动量真正启动，你就会沿着它去拿，而那一段往往会带来非常大的收益。

Yeah, exactly. That’s it.

对，就是这样。

I mean, that’s really what it is to me. I say it again and again and again all the time. Make a lot when you’re right, lose a little when you’re wrong. That’s the name of the game, right? Be wrong, lose a little; be right, make a lot; and then just let time pass and keep doing that.

对我来说，交易的核心就是这一点。我一直反复讲同一句话：做对的时候多赚，做错的时候少亏。这就是游戏规则。错的时候亏一点，对的时候赚很多，然后让时间去累积这个过程，持续重复。

Yeah, and I think as I get more experience, really at the end of the day for me the goal is to make as much as I can when things are going well and then not mess things up too badly when things are not going well. That’s it.

对。随着经验越来越多，我现在越来越清楚，对我来说最终目标就是：行情顺的时候，尽可能多赚；行情不顺的时候，别把事情搞得太糟。这就够了。

How do you handle when things aren’t going well?

那行情不顺的时候，你怎么处理？

I’m handling it better than I used to. I mean, you’re a competitive guy, you’re an athlete, I’m very competitive and I can really beat myself up. I think the key is to trade small when things aren’t going well, to trade smaller and smaller and smaller until you get a couple trades going and then you get your confidence back. Basically it’s to trade smaller when you’re losing.

我现在处理得比以前好一些。你也知道，竞争性很强的人，运动员类型的人，很容易在交易不顺的时候对自己下狠手。我就是这样的人，竞争心很强，也很容易自我消耗。我觉得关键就在于：当状态不好的时候，把仓位缩小，而且要一再缩小，直到你重新做出几笔顺手的交易，把信心找回来。简单说，亏钱的时候就把仓位继续缩小。

It’s funny because your P&L will tell you. For you, from what you’ve just told me, if you’re losing it means that the momentum is just farting around, the market’s going up and down, open down, so you’re losing. Therefore that in itself tells you this is not the time to be heavy momentum. It automatically shrinks you.

其实 P&L 自己就会告诉你答案。按你刚才讲的逻辑，如果你在亏钱，通常说明市场的动量状态很差，走势上上下下、跳来跳去，你的策略自然就不顺。那这个结果本身就说明，当下不是应该重仓做动量的时候。你的仓位自然就应该缩小。

Exactly. And then when you’re making it, it’s the opposite, right? When you’re making it, it means the momentum’s coming back, so now it’s time to get big.

对，就是这样。反过来，当你开始赚钱，往往说明动量环境回来了，那才是应该把仓位做大的阶段。

Exactly, yeah. But then when you’re making too much, don’t get... one of the best lines I learned from that bucket shop was there was a guy on the desk, he’d been in the game a long time, and he’d always say, you know, he’d have a huge day and when you’re 23 and you see a guy making like 50 grand in a day you’re like, oh my God. And he was this Russian guy and he would just say, you got to stay humble in this game. The guy never was very high and never very low. That’s key.

对。不过当你赚得很顺的时候，也得小心别飘。我在那家 bucket shop 学到的一句最好的话，就是当时有个老交易员，做这行很久了。有一天他赚了特别多。你想象一下，23 岁的时候看到一个人一天赚五万美元，你的反应肯定是“我的天”。但那个俄罗斯人只是很平静地说了一句：你在这行里必须保持谦逊。那个人从来不会特别兴奋，也不会特别低落。我觉得这点非常关键。

That’s a fact. You’ve got to stay humble in this game. It will humble you, whether you like it or not.

这句话确实没错。你在这行里必须保持谦逊。无论你愿不愿意，市场都会让你学会这一点。

Well, that’s cool. You do other things outside of trading too? You go to the gym, blow off steam?

挺好。那你在交易之外会做别的事吗？会去健身、做点释放压力的事情吗？

My wife’s always on me to go to the gym. I’ve recently started working out again for the first time in a long time, and I love working out, I just wasn’t doing it. I’m 36. I like to play basketball. That’s actually really what I like to do. When I lived in the city, there were some pretty good runs at some of the local courts, so I liked doing that.

我老婆一直催我去健身。我最近又重新开始锻炼了，这算是很久以来第一次恢复训练。其实我很喜欢锻炼，只是前一段时间没做而已。我今年 36 岁。我很喜欢打篮球，这其实是我真正最喜欢做的运动。以前住在城里的时候，附近一些球场经常有不错的局，我很喜欢去打。

And then I actually grew up sailing, so I competitively sail. I’ve got a boat out on the bay in San Francisco with a couple of my buddies and my dad, so that’s probably my main hobby.

另外，我从小是玩帆船长大的，所以我也会参加一些竞技帆船活动。我和几个朋友、还有我父亲，在旧金山湾那边有一条船，所以这大概算是我现在最主要的兴趣爱好。

Keep it up, dude. I’m telling you now, man, I’m not your dad or anything, but I’m 56, and if you want to know what happens if you don’t do any of that stuff for the next 20 years, here it is. You don’t want this. I sit here in front of these screens and I never really liked exercising anyway, and I’m telling you, I’m a mess when it comes to health because I sit in front of the screens for 30-something years and I fall into that habit. My health sucks, quite frankly. So young, healthy guy, keep it up.

继续保持，兄弟。我现在就告诉你，我不是你爸，但我 56 岁了。如果你想知道未来二十年都不做这些事情，会变成什么样，我就是样本。你不会想变成这样。我长年坐在屏幕前，本来也不太喜欢锻炼。说实话，我现在的身体状态很糟，因为我已经在这些屏幕前坐了三十多年，整个人被这种习惯固定住了。坦白讲，我的健康状况很差。所以你还年轻，身体也好，继续保持。

Plus it keeps your mind... I end up doing a lot of mind things. I meditate. I have to keep myself straight with all this. I don’t know if my wife can hear me, but I should exercise. She’s on me all the time.

而且这些事情对精神状态也有帮助。我自己会做很多偏 mental 的东西，比如冥想。我必须靠这些方法让自己保持稳定。我都不知道我老婆有没有在旁边听着，但我确实也该去锻炼了。她一直在催我。

My wife is in great shape and is very serious about it all. I had to hide all the junk food that I have next to my desk when we turned on Zoom. I need to do a better job taking care of myself. And then some of the mind stuff, meditation and stuff you do, my wife is like a breathwork coach or whatever, so I do that stuff with her and it helps me. As much as I for a while hated to say I do that stuff, it helps me for sure. It helps me relax because I’m a pretty intense person.

我老婆的状态很好，而且对这些事情很认真。我们刚打开 Zoom 的时候，我还得把桌子旁边那堆垃圾食品先藏起来。我确实需要在照顾自己这件事上做得更好一些。至于冥想、精神训练这一类，我老婆算是做呼吸训练相关工作的，所以我也会跟她一起做这些东西。虽然有一段时间我很不愿意承认自己会做这些，但它确实有帮助，尤其是在让我放松这件事上，因为我本身是一个张力很强的人。

No, I can see it. I couldn’t exist without some form of mind relaxation. I’ve been doing that for a long time and that’s the only thing that I think keeps me even half sane, because I don’t exercise and I don’t really get the endorphins going like that, so to me that’s important.

对，我看得出来。我自己如果没有某种让精神放松的方法，根本没法正常活下去。我做这些已经很久了，而且我觉得这几乎是唯一能让我维持基本稳定的东西。因为我不锻炼，也没有办法通过运动去获得那种内啡肽反馈，所以对我来说，这类方法非常重要。

Are you involved in SMCI?

你有做 SMCI 吗？

I have a position in SMCI. I would say I had a pretty good sized position in SMCI and I got shaken out the day before. I bought it recently, but then it went so quickly that I didn’t get as big a position as I have in Nvidia, not even close. That would be an example of a name that just explodes. I’m not going to get as much stock. I’m just not.

我手里有 SMCI 的仓位。我之前其实拿过一个不小的 SMCI 仓位，但前一天被震出去了。后来我又重新买回来，但它涨得太快了，所以我最后拿到的仓位规模，和 Nvidia 完全没法比。像这种直接爆发式上行的股票，就是我刚才说的那种例子——我天然拿不到太多仓位，就是这样。

But you can still make a lot of money when the stock doubles in a day or whatever.

但即便如此，如果一只股票一天里就翻倍之类的，你一样能赚很多钱。

Yeah, I mean SMCI has definitely been good to me. But we’ll see. It’s extended here, but I see people calling for this thing to crash and I don’t know, it hasn’t even made a lower low yet. I think it’ll probably make a lower low before it crashes.

对，SMCI 确实让我赚到了钱。但后面怎么走还得继续看。它当前位置当然已经比较偏了，但我看到很多人在喊它要崩。我自己的看法是，它连一个 lower low 都还没有打出来。我觉得如果它真要走成明显转弱结构，至少也得先走出一个 lower low。

It certainly has to by definition, right? That’s what people don’t get at all. I just did a video this last week where I’m like, look, if you want to be bearish, be bearish, man, that’s fine, but let the market tell you something first. If it’s a lower low that tells you, then wait for the lower low before you get bearish.

从定义上讲，本来就该这样。很多人完全没搞明白这一点。我上周刚录了一期视频，核心意思就是：你想看空没问题，但先让市场自己给出一些信号。如果 lower low 是你认定转弱的标准，那你就先等它走出 lower low，再去看空。

I say this to people all the time, man. I get it, the thing’s gone up a lot and I get it, you missed it so you want to be short. But that’s no reason to be short.

我一直都在跟别人讲这件事。我知道，很多股票已经涨了很多，我也知道，你错过了，所以你想做空。但这从来都不是做空的理由。

Exactly. When I look at SMCI, SMCI hasn’t even touched it. Well, I guess on the daily chart it has, but I put the five-day moving average on my 65-minute chart, right? It hasn’t touched it this whole rally.

对。就我现在看 SMCI 的结构，它甚至都还没有真正碰到那个位置。日线图上也许勉强算碰过，但在我自己的 65 分钟图里，我会叠一条五日均线，这一整轮上涨里，它几乎都没有真正去碰那条线。

Hell no, how could it? Straight up. But I personally, and now this is my opinion, it’s not like what’s actually happening because it hasn’t happened yet, but when I see a stock like this, I think this stock is more likely to consolidate a little and then go higher.

当然没有，走势几乎就是直线上去。但这只是我个人的判断，不是已经发生的事实。我自己的感觉是，像这种股票，更大的概率是先做一点整理，然后再往上走。

You don’t look at fundamentals at all? You’re not trading these stocks because you have this opinion that AI is going to take over the world and it’s going to be the greatest invention in the history of mankind, and therefore that’s why you’re involved in these stocks?

所以你完全不看基本面吗？你并不是因为认定 AI 会改变世界、会成为人类历史上最伟大的技术突破，所以才去交易这些股票，对吗？

I’m definitely not the guy looking at price-to-book and all the value stuff. I am looking at earnings growth and sales growth. That is one thing. I like companies with good growth, specifically revenue growth.

我肯定不是那种盯着 PB、盯着各种价值指标的人。但我会看盈利增长和销售增长，这一点我会看。我偏好增长好的公司，尤其是收入增长强的公司。

So the companies that you’re picking to trade, which you said are not very many, first have to have that, is that right?

所以你最终拿来交易的公司，虽然数量并不多，但前提还是要具备这类增长特征，对吗？

I don’t really scan and filter for that. Really the way that I find a stock is if it has big volume. If I see big volume then I start to do a little more research on the company. And sort of the way I think about things is in themes. AI to me is obviously the biggest theme right now. That’s what’s hot. Now do I have some big opinion on AI? No, not really. But AI is the theme right now. So which companies are a play on that theme?

我并不会先按这些指标去做扫描和筛选。真正让我开始关注一只股票的起点，通常是它出现了很大的成交量。只要我看到异常大的量，我就会开始去多看一眼这家公司。然后我思考问题的方式，更多是围绕主题。对我来说，AI 显然是当前最大的主题，这是当下最热的方向。那我对 AI 有没有什么特别宏大的长期判断？其实没有。但 AI 就是眼下的主题，所以关键问题变成：哪些公司是在交易这个主题？

When I bought Nvidia in January of 2023 or whatever, I really didn’t have a clue they had anything to do with AI. I knew they were a semiconductor. I’m not sitting here pretending I know exactly... I mean, I know semiconductors are on computers or whatever, but I’m not sitting here telling you that I actually have a clue.

我在 2023 年 1 月附近买 Nvidia 的时候，老实说，我根本没有多清楚地意识到它和 AI 的关系有多深。我只知道它是一家半导体公司。我不会坐在这里装作自己对这些细节全都很懂。我当然知道半导体是用在电脑里的，但如果你让我说自己当时对它背后的全部技术细节都很清楚，那肯定不是事实。

I love it. That’s how I am too. I trade commodities and I’ll get long bean oil, I’m like I don’t even know what bean oil is, man. All that matters is if it makes me money.

我太喜欢这个状态了，我自己也是这样。我做商品的时候，有时候会去做多豆油，心里想的甚至是“我都没那么清楚豆油到底是个什么东西”。对我来说，最重要的事情就是它能不能让我赚钱。

Exactly. And now that things are a little more mature, just because I’ve been trading them, I have a little more sense. Basically the way I think about it is: okay, Nvidia has the chips and SMCI has the servers you put them into. AMD is kind of number two in the chip space. This stock VRT, which unfortunately I haven’t really been able to get right, they make the cooling gear to keep these towers cool because they have so much processing power. So I’m cognizant of the big picture, but I’m not getting so caught up in every little detail.

对。现在因为我已经持续交易这些名字有一段时间了，所以对整个链条的理解也比以前多一些。大致上，我脑子里的框架是这样：Nvidia 做芯片，SMCI 做服务器，芯片装进服务器里；AMD 在芯片领域更像第二名；还有 VRT，这只我做得不算顺，它主要做冷却设备，因为这些高算力设备需要大量散热。也就是说，我对大框架是有概念的，但我不会让自己陷进每一个细节里。

Part of the reason is I don’t want to have too strong an opinion on it. I want to be able to trade my system.

其中一个重要原因是，我不希望自己形成过强的主观立场。我希望自己始终能按系统交易。

Hell yeah. That’s beautiful. I love that. Your opinion will screw you up, right? I know that because it has.

太对了。这点我特别认同。观点太强，最后往往会把你自己搞坏，对吧？我之所以这么说，就是因为我自己吃过这种亏。

No, also a great point. That’s where you learn, right?

对，这也是一个非常关键的点。很多人就是在这里学到教训的。

Yeah. I mean one of the great things about William O’Neil’s book is people look at the CANSLIM strategy and they quote the strategy, but really all that book is a study of the biggest winners in history. That’s actually what it is. It’s a study.

对。William O’Neil 那本书有一个非常重要的地方。很多人只会去背 CANSLIM 那套规则，但实际上整本书本质上是在研究历史上最强的大牛股。它本质上是一项研究。

Someone actually asked me on Twitter the other day what I think of high PEs, and I said, oh, I love them, as long as the stock is growing. Why does a company get a high PE? Because the market thinks it’s going to grow.

前几天还有人在 Twitter 上问我怎么看高 PE。我直接回答说，我喜欢高 PE，只要这只股票在增长就行。一个公司为什么会拿到高 PE？因为市场认为它未来会继续增长。

So Nvidia right now, and actually I couldn’t tell you what the PE is, I don’t know, but I’m pretty confident the PE in Nvidia is significantly lower right now than it was in January of 2023.

所以以 Nvidia 为例，虽然我现在说不出它的 PE 具体是多少，我也没去背那个数字，但我相当确定的一点是，今天 Nvidia 的 PE，大概率已经显著低于 2023 年 1 月时的水平。

Probably is because the earnings have gone up so much.

大概率就是因为它的盈利增速太快了。

Exactly, which is a trademark of a lot of the biggest winners in history.

对，而这恰恰就是历史上很多超级牛股的典型特征。

For a lot of people that don’t know, William O’Neil is a legend, I think he passed away last year maybe, a Wall Street legend who wrote a book and he created this system called CANSLIM because all the letters mean something. He based it, as Oliver was saying, on looking at what were the biggest growing stocks in history and what did they have in common.

很多不熟悉的人可能不知道，William O’Neil 是华尔街的传奇人物。我印象里他可能是去年去世的。他写过一本非常经典的书，也创建了 CANSLIM 这套体系，每个字母都有对应含义。正如 Oliver 刚才讲的，他整套方法的出发点，就是回头去研究历史上那些增长最强的股票，看看它们到底有哪些共性。

He found things like they had obviously huge earnings growth, but on top of huge earnings growth, what I always thought was interesting, and I’m no expert, I just know him from reading his book years ago and from the original Market Wizards, one of my favorite books, but he found that the momentum of the stock had to be in the top 5% of all stocks before he would buy it. So you have this great earnings growth, but then he’s waiting for the market to confirm that by showing that there is huge momentum in the stock. Here’s a stock saying we have huge earnings growth and our stock is starting to go up relative to the market. Let’s go.

他发现，这些股票通常当然都会有非常强的盈利增长，但比单纯盈利增长更有意思的一点在于——虽然我不是专家，我只是很多年前读过他的书，也在最早那本《Market Wizards》里读到过他——他会要求一只股票的动量排名进入全市场前 5%，之后才会考虑买入。也就是说，盈利增长强只是第一步，接下来还要等市场自己确认这一点，通过强动量把这层逻辑表达出来。换句话说，一家公司告诉你“我盈利增长很强”，而市场也同时告诉你“资金正在大举买入它”，那这时候才值得真正出手。

And there’s a little bit more to it too, but that’s in general what he’s doing, right? You have two things on your side. You have great earnings growth, which is a good way for a company to grow clearly, and you have momentum.

当然，这套方法里面还有更多细节，但大体上，他做的事情就是这个逻辑。你同时站在两件事这一边：公司本身的强增长，以及市场已经显性表现出来的价格动量。

And I would recommend William O’Neil’s stuff to anybody trading anything, but in particular if you’re trading stocks, I would certainly recommend that. There have been a lot of successful people that have done that.

所以我会把 William O’Neil 的东西推荐给任何交易者，尤其是做股票的人。我会非常明确地推荐去读。用这套框架做出成绩的人，历史上有很多。

I did have a conversation with the guys at his firm a few months ago, who worked for the asset management division of his firm, and they semi-admitted to me that pure CANSLIM has become a little harder, which makes sense to me, because so many people have realized how good it is. So for example, they’re waiting for this breakout and then they put their stop in whatever, I think he does like a 7% move against him as his stop. A lot more times it’s breaking out, it’s breaking out heavy because everybody sees it, then it has this 7% drawdown, everybody gets stopped out, and then it breaks and rolls right, then it rips. That’s normal because so many people know it.

几个月前，我还跟他那家机构资产管理部门的人聊过一次。他们其实也半承认了一件事：纯粹按照原教旨 CANSLIM 去做，今天确实比过去难了一些。这个结论我也完全理解，因为知道这套东西的人太多了。举个例子，很多人会等到标准 breakout 才进场，然后止损就放在比如 7% 的位置。结果经常会发生的事情是：一只股票突破，很多人一起上，随后价格回撤 7%，大家都被洗出去，之后它再重新启动、大幅上行。这种事越来越常见，本质上就是因为市场里懂这套逻辑的人太多了。

So for example, okay, they’re waiting for this breakout and then they put their stop in whatever. I think he does like a 7% move against him as his stop. So many people know it, something has to be arbed out. So I guess you just have to adapt a little bit, which sounds like exactly what you did.

也就是说，原本那种标准 breakout 加固定止损的处理方式，如今越来越容易被提前识别和利用。既然这么多人都知道它，市场自然会把其中最显性的部分套利掉。所以最后的结论就是：你必须做一点调整。而听起来，你其实已经完成了这种调整。

Yeah. I don’t subscribe to the paper or anything, but I have in the past, and they’ll put like traditional buy points, like breaks out to a new high or something. I’m often in well before those breakouts just because of how I get in. I’m typically in before.

对。我现在并没有订他们的报纸之类的东西，虽然以前订过。他们会给出一些很传统的 buy point，比如突破前高之类。但按照我的进场方式，我很多时候都会比那种标准 breakout 更早进去。

Yeah, you’ve changed your definition of the breakout compared to what their definition is.

对，你其实已经重定义了 breakout，和他们原本的定义不完全一样了。

Exactly. Sometimes people will say, hey, this is breaking out, and I’m like, no, it’s extended, or it’s not breaking out at least how I go about things. Really that all happened via trial and error for me, and really just not making money for a long time and then figuring out like, hey, what I did is I went back and I studied Apple and Baidu were kind of the two big names when I first started trading, kind of like the last couple years it’s been Nvidia and Tesla. It used to be Apple and BIDU. I just went back and went through them all with the 10/20 EMA and studied when did the actual move start, what happened that led to it starting.

对，有时候别人会说“这已经 breakout 了”，但我会觉得不对，这个位置其实已经偏离了，或者至少按我的交易框架来看，它不算 breakout。这个认知的形成，对我来说完全是试错一点点磨出来的。说到底，就是我有很长一段时间都赚不到钱，然后我才慢慢反推：到底真正有效的进场点在哪里。我会回头去研究那些历史上最强的名字。刚开始做交易那几年，对我来说最值得研究的是 Apple 和 Baidu；这几年则更像是 Nvidia 和 Tesla。我就是把这些名字全部重新过一遍，套上 10/20 EMA，一根一根去看：真正的大行情到底从哪里启动，启动前都发生了什么。

And then just to kind of elaborate, to better answer your question, kind of like how do I pick stocks, do I run fundamentals or whatever, really the main thing I look for is massive volume. I look for huge volume. A lot of the times I will find the stocks that have massive volume signatures, and when you go look at the fundamentals, the fundamentals happen to be pretty good. That’s why a lot of people started buying them, right? Why do all that research when you can let the market do the research for you? That’s basically what I do.

再进一步讲，要更准确地回答你前面那个问题：我到底怎么选股票，是否先跑基本面筛选，等等。其实最核心的起点还是量。我主要找的是异常巨大的成交量。很多时候，一只股票先给出很强的量能信号，等你回头再去看基本面时，会发现它的基本面往往确实不错。也正因为如此，市场才会开始大量买入它。既然市场本身已经替你做了一轮研究，你又何必事事都自己从零做一遍？我本质上就是这么干的。

You’ve got 800,000 analysts out there that can find this stuff and it shows up in the tape, so you don’t even need to do the work because they’re all doing the work.

外面有几十万分析师在做这些研究，最后结果都会体现在 tape 里。既然如此，你自己未必要把所有基础工作重新做一遍，因为别人已经替你做完了。

Yeah. I mean, I sort of look at fundamentals because I’m sitting here all day and I’m bored and I need some stuff to read.

对。我当然也会看一点基本面材料，毕竟我整天坐在这里，有时候也需要找点东西看看。

Does news and in particular reaction to news events matter to you at all? If Nvidia comes out with great earnings and the stock gaps up and closes down on the day, do you say, oh my God, that’s not very good, or anything like that?

那新闻，尤其是市场对新闻的反应，对你重要吗？比如 Nvidia 发了非常强的业绩，但股价高开低走，最后收跌，你会不会立刻觉得这个反应不太对劲？

Yeah, absolutely. So actually something I was watching this morning, which I’m not really interested in the sector, I didn’t look at it deeply, but solar. I’m not really interested in the solars. The P&L indicator has not turned up on that sector, so I’m not even really paying attention to it. But one thing I noticed in the stock ENPH, if I’m going to trade the solars I typically like to trade ENPH or First Solar, those are kind of the two that I like to trade, and this thing has just been clubbed.

对，当然重要。比如今天早上我就在看一个例子，虽然我自己其实并不太关心那个板块——就是太阳能。我对 solar 这个方向目前没什么兴趣，因为那一块的 P&L indicator 还没有转上来，所以我平时甚至不会怎么关注它。不过今天我留意到 ENPH 这只股票。如果我真要做 solar，我通常只会看 ENPH 或 First Solar，这两个是我相对愿意交易的名字。而 ENPH 之前真的是一路被砸得很惨。

I mean it’s gone from 339 down to maybe 75, and it reported earnings last night and they revised their guide. Not the best look, right? But the stock was up 17% today and, oh, guess what, it did a massive amount of volume.

它大概从 339 一路跌到 75 左右。昨晚它公布了业绩，而且还下修了指引，这表面看肯定不算好消息。但今天股价却涨了 17%，而且出现了非常大的成交量。

Am I going to run out and buy this stock? No. It’s below the 200-period moving average. I think it probably needs a couple months of consolidation. But that’s kind of like a huh. It’s down a ton, now they revise guidance down, that’s not a good thing, and the stock goes higher. That’s just something that I’ll be aware of. I still don’t think that’s where I want to put my money, but maybe with a little more time it’ll be maybe the worst of the news for this thing is priced in and now it can repair and maybe set up long.

我会不会因为这个就立刻冲进去买？不会。它还在 200 周期均线下方，我觉得它大概率至少还需要几个月时间去整理。但这个反应本身会让我留意：一只已经跌了很多的股票，在公司下修指引这种并不好的消息出来之后，股价却还能明显上涨，那说明某些事情已经开始变化。我现在仍然不认为这是我想放钱的地方，但再给它一些时间，说不定最差的消息已经被定价进去了，之后它有机会修复结构，再慢慢形成一个可做多的 setup。

So that looks a lot like we haven’t had it yet, but that’s a possible higher low and lower high thing coming up here somewhere.

所以从结构上看，虽然拐点还没有完全确认，但这里已经有一点往“更高低点、再逐步修复”的方向去演化的迹象了。

Yeah. So when I look at this, on the weekly, we made the lows in around 73s or whatever, and this week could be a higher low. Just in my experience, basically from this bear market we just had, you can see all these names that are starting to turn now, but when they had those huge sell-offs they needed six or eight months to really base even once they bottomed. So I would imagine this will probably be choppy even if the lows are in, and I want to trade it when it’s ready to go.

对。就周线结构来看，低点大概是在 73 一带，这周有可能做出一个更高的低点。但按我过去在上一轮熊市中的经验，很多现在开始转向的股票，在经历大幅下跌之后，即便已经见到底部，往往仍然需要六到八个月时间去真正完成筑底。所以我的判断是，就算低点已经出现，它后面大概率也会比较反复、比较震荡。我会等到它真正 ready to go 的时候再去做。

How did your whole thing work, let’s call it the second half of ‘21 and ‘22, because that started to become the death of momentum stocks for a while.

那你在 2021 年下半年以及 2022 年那段时间，是怎么熬过来的？因为那一段对动量股来说，确实像是一次系统性绞杀。

The beginning of ‘21 was the biggest two-month period I ever had. Then I was basically a beta trader the rest of ‘21. I caught a big move in October, which was basically I caught three stocks: Nvidia, Tesla, and AMD. But I had a lot of false breakouts and other things along the way that beat me up, and catching that move allowed me to basically be a beta trader, but it didn’t go great. It was tough for the way that I trade.

2021 年年初，其实是我做交易以来最强的两个月之一。之后整整 2021 年剩下的大部分时间，我都只是勉强在打平。十月份我抓到过一波比较大的机会，主要集中在三只股票：Nvidia、Tesla 和 AMD。但在那之前和之后，我也被大量 false breakout 和各种无效信号来回折腾。所以整体看，虽然那段行情让我没有出大问题，但全年对我的交易方式来说，其实并不好做。

How bad, and you don’t have to tell me this, but how bad would your drawdown get? That would have been probably the worst period for this type of trading.

如果你愿意讲的话，那段时间你的回撤大概有多大？对这种交易方式来说，那应该算是最难的一段环境之一。

2021 was tough because you had a lot of false breakouts. It actually would have almost been better if the market just went down. Catching that October move, because I don’t trade like 15 stocks, I was able to get three stocks that moved and allowed me to make money in that October period. In 2022, fortunately in the first quarter I caught the downtrend, and I actually did great in Q1. Then Q2 and Q3 I started to get chopped up and I gave back all my Q1 and just started trading smaller and smaller.

2021 年最难的地方，在于 false breakout 太多了。某种意义上，如果市场干脆一路往下走，反而还更简单。十月份那波之所以帮了我，是因为我并不会分散去做十五只股票，所以只要我抓对三只真的能走出来的名字，就足以让那一段变得有收益。到了 2022 年，一季度我其实做得很好，因为我抓住了那段下行趋势。但到了二季度、三季度，我开始被市场反复切割，把一季度赚的东西基本又都吐了回去，然后仓位也越做越小。

Then fortunately around October, and even when the market bottomed in October, it’s not like I was doing that great because in reality what was I trading? I was trading Microsoft and Apple because that’s what was going up, but those names don’t really fly.

后来差不多到十月前后，虽然市场见底了，但我也没有立刻做得很好。原因很简单，当时我主要在做的名字其实是 Microsoft 和 Apple，因为那会儿能走的就是这些股票，但这类大盘股毕竟很难像高弹性动量股那样迅速拉开空间。

So basically I did well in Q1 and I gave it all back, and I was actually right on a lot of the moves in the market and still lost money. It was my first bear market. I’d never been in a market that just...

所以整体上，2022 年就是：一季度做得很好，后面又全吐了回去。更难受的是，很多市场方向我其实看对了，但最后还是亏钱。这毕竟是我真正意义上第一次完整经历熊市，我以前没有真正经历过这种环境。

That’s why I’m curious as to how bad it all got for you. You clearly didn’t lose 100% of your money, which is great because you stayed alive for this, and this is your time now. But like 30, 50, what was your worst peak-to-trough?

所以我才想知道，那段时间到底有多难。你肯定没有把钱全亏光，这一点非常关键，因为你活下来了，而现在这个阶段就是属于你的时间窗口。那你当时最大回撤大概有多少？30%、50%，还是别的数字？

Like 25%, which is nothing compared to the returns that you’re getting.

大概 25% 左右。和后面赚到的收益相比，这个数字听上去不算夸张。

I mean it was a lot for me. It was a lot clearly for you to go through.

但对我来说，那已经很多了。真正在那个过程中经历它，是很难受的。

The thing that was terrible for me is at one point I was trading so small that it was basically just sort of inconsequential. It didn’t really matter what I was doing. I was trading so small. It was just like two quarters basically where I was just not doing anything good, and mentally that was what wore on me. I was pissed off like every day. I was so unhappy.

对我最折磨的地方，其实不是数字本身，而是有一段时间我的仓位已经缩到太小，小到交易结果本身几乎没有实质意义。那个阶段无论我做什么，结果都没有太多变化。差不多有两个季度，我就是持续做不好任何事情。真正把我磨掉的，是心理层面——我几乎每天都很烦躁，整个人非常不开心。

Going back and having gone through that, I would have just gone on vacation, but I didn’t. You learn a lot. It’s your first bear market. They come, and you learned a lot and you’ll be prepared for the next one.

现在回头看，我当时可能更应该直接去休个假，但我没有。话说回来，你也确实会在这样的阶段里学到很多东西。这毕竟是你第一次完整经历熊市。熊市总会来，而你现在已经穿过了一次，下一次你会准备得更充分。

Yeah. I actually think it’s going to prove to be the biggest year for me of my career because I traded through ‘18, which was not even close to a bear market, easy. Covid was like, when people call Covid a bear market, give me a break, it was six weeks long. It happened so quickly that by the time you figured out you needed to get out, it was all the way back up anyway.

对。我其实觉得，那一年最终会被证明是我职业生涯里最重要的一年。因为我也经历过 2018 年，但那离真正的熊市还差得远；对我来说，那种环境根本不算难。至于 Covid，很多人会把那段也叫熊市，但在我看来，那顶多就是一个持续六周的极端冲击。它发生得太快，很多时候等你反应过来该走了，市场都已经快反弹回去了。

So those were... Covid was easier than a standard five- or ten-percent correction, because it wasn’t even choppy. It was straight down and then straight back up.

所以从交易角度讲，Covid 那次甚至比很多普通的 5% 或 10% 回调还容易，因为它完全没有那种来回反复的过程。它就是一路直线下跌，然后又一路直线弹回去。

I think probably the big thing I learned is probably more important than any kind of quote-unquote breadth indicator or whatever. I use the 10/20-period moving average, but when the 50-period moving average turns down on the index, your chances of catching any real type of move, you might as well just chill, or you need to have the skill set to catch like two- to three-week moves, which I do think I have with how I trade, but it’s not how I want to trade.

我觉得我学到的最重要的一点，甚至比各种所谓 breadth indicator 更重要。虽然我自己的核心框架是 10/20 均线，但如果你从指数层面去看，一旦 50 周期均线开始往下拐，那你想抓到真正有持续性的行情，概率就会明显下降。这种时候，你要么干脆放慢下来，先别积极出手；要么你就必须具备抓两三周短波段的能力。我确实觉得自己具备这种能力，但这并不是我最想做的交易类型。

And so that just made me frustrated. Even when you’re given a good trade, when you don’t sell it perfectly and you’re giving half back, stuff like that, bear markets are very, very tough.

所以那种环境天然会让人沮丧。即便你抓到一笔不错的交易，只要卖得不够精确，回头就可能把一半利润吐回去。熊市的困难，本质上就在这里。

Yeah, not just because the market is going down, but because traditionally bear markets have many, many false starts. You get a rally and it looks good, but it’s false. Then it goes down and makes a new low, and then it rallies and it’s false and it goes down. I mean bear markets are painful.

对，熊市难做，不只是因为市场在跌，更因为它天生会制造大量假启动。你会看到一段反弹，看起来很像真的，结果是假动作；然后市场再破低，再反弹，再是假动作，再往下。熊市真正痛苦的地方，就在这种反复拉扯里。

I warn people about shorting the stock market for a lot of reasons, that being one of them. Even if you get it right, it’s impossible. You’re going to catch a 50% move down in the stock market because you’re short? In between that 50% move down, there’s going to be four or five 25% or 30% moves up, so you’re going to get whipped, so you ain’t going to make money anyway.

我之所以总劝别人别轻易去系统性做空股市，其中一个重要原因就在这里。就算你方向看对了，真正做下来也会非常困难。你想完整吃到股市 50% 的跌幅？在这 50% 的总跌幅中间，往往会穿插四五次 25% 或 30% 的猛烈反弹。你会在这些过程里反复被来回打，最后大概率依然赚不到该赚的钱。

Well, that’s what I was saying. I had a lot of the moves right in the bear, and the nice thing about the way I trade is you actually can catch these moves in those types of markets. But I would get long and things would look good, it would have a one-day shake and then gap up 4% and go, so it did enough to knock me out and then went.

对，这也正是我前面说的。我在熊市里，其实抓对了很多次方向。我这种方法的一个优点在于，在那种环境里依然是有机会抓到一些行情的。但问题在于，你经常会先做多，走势看起来不错，结果中间来一天快速震荡，把你洗出去，第二天又高开 4% 直接走。也就是说，它会恰到好处地把你震下车，然后自己继续跑。

And the moves were what, like three or four weeks, so you really had to nail the entry. There was no... for example in this market, we’ve basically been rallying now for going on four months, and so you were able to build positions and hold them and make progress in your account and buy new positions, whereas in the bear market, at least from my perspective, you had to nail the turn and then get out and get short at the turn. You basically had a couple day window, one or two days to kind of make your move, and if you didn’t nail that window, you’re kind of better off just waiting a month or two to try to get the next window.

而且那种环境里的每一段像样行情，通常也就持续三到四周，所以你的进场点必须抓得非常准。那和现在的市场完全不是一个游戏。现在这段上涨，已经持续了差不多四个月，你可以慢慢搭仓、继续持有、让账户一步步往上走，同时还可以不断开新仓。但在熊市里，至少按我的经验，你必须非常精准地抓住拐点，然后也得非常快地离场，再去等待下一个方向切换。很多时候，真正属于你的交易窗口也就一两天而已。只要没抓住那个窗口，最合理的选择可能就是干脆再等一个月，等下一次机会。

You’re better off waiting for a market like this where you can make real money. And look, I’m not saying you can’t make real money in a bear market. I know a guy who can’t make money in a bull market but he makes money in bear markets. It’s one or the other.

很多时候，你其实更适合等像现在这样的市场，因为这种环境下你能真正把钱做出来。当然，我也不是说熊市里就一定赚不到大钱。我也认识那种人在牛市里做不好，但一进熊市反而如鱼得水的人。每个人的适配环境都不一样。

Well, that’s cool. I think there’s a lot of lessons here for people who want to be momentum traders. Some of the very specific things that he talks about in terms of the moving averages and the 50-day moving average for the index, and when it’s below that’s obviously going to be a lot harder time, I think these are all very, very important points for momentum trading.

挺好。我觉得这里面对那些想做动量交易的人来说，有很多值得记下来的东西。无论是他对均线的使用，还是他提到指数层面的 50 日均线一旦转弱，交易环境就会明显变差，这些点我觉得都非常重要。

I don’t do momentum trading, but momentum trading can be great provided you can do a decent job of avoiding the times when it’s not working and capitalizing and maximizing on the times when it is working. It sounds like really more than anything else Oliver is not doing anything magical here. He’s the first one to say it. He’s not doing anything super special. But what he’s doing is minimizing, and he’s learning as he goes, because he just had his first bear market or whatever, but he’s learning how to minimize his losing when that stuff isn’t working.

我自己不做动量交易，但我承认，动量交易完全可以非常出色，前提是你能在它失效的时候尽量避开，在它有效的时候尽可能把结果做大。听下来，Oliver 最值得学的地方并不在于他做了什么神奇的事情。他自己也承认了，他没有做什么特别神秘的操作。他真正做对的地方，在于他不断学习如何把无效阶段的亏损压缩下来。尤其是在刚经历第一轮完整熊市之后，这种能力会变得更重要。

He’s getting stopped no matter what. Nvidia he loves. As he should. If the thing gaps down 75, 80 points tomorrow, he’s out, man. Doesn’t matter how much he loves it. He’s out. Risk management. And in the meantime he’s riding, and as a momentum trader adding in the right situation to positions that are working, adding to his winners, riding his winners, cutting his losers. The rest to me, no matter what kind of trading you’re doing, is all that matters.

他的执行是非常明确的。Nvidia 他当然很喜欢，而且也确实值得喜欢。但如果明天它直接低开 75、80 点，他照样会走。无论他有多喜欢这只股票，都会执行离场。这就是风险管理。与此同时，在趋势顺的时候，他会沿着行情去持有，并在合适的位置继续往表现好的仓位上加码。把赢的单子拿住，把亏的单子切掉。对我来说，无论你做的是哪一种交易，这几件事才是真正决定长期结果的核心。

It sounds like he’s doing a great job of that. We only get an hour on this thing. I could talk for hours. But do you want people to find you, and if so, where can they find you?

听下来，他在这方面做得相当不错。我们这个节目可能也差不多只能录一个小时，不然我还能继续聊很久。不过最后还是问一下，如果大家想找到你，应该去哪里？

I mean, I’m on Twitter. My name is onechart6. And then I basically just write a newsletter more or less with my thoughts, basically what I’m doing, at theswingreport.com. And that’s, you know, don’t try to find me anywhere else please.

我在 Twitter 上，账号叫 onechart6。然后我也会写一份 newsletter，基本就是记录我的一些想法，以及我在做什么，网站是 theswingreport.com。大概就是这些了。别的地方就别找我了。

Don’t go to Philadelphia.

也别跑去费城找他。

All right, well awesome man. I really appreciate the time. This was really cool, and I wish you continued success with this whole thing. I hope that you’re riding Nvidia up to a thousand. I really do, because I want to say that I personally know somebody that did okay, because I don’t own Nvidia. I’m not a stock trader, but I could own it in my 401(k) if I had any balls. But I have been saying specifically, stop shorting Nvidia. You have to stop. I’m a mass psychology type of guy, and all I hear is people shorting Nvidia, everybody I know. And I’m just like, you have to stop.

好，太棒了，兄弟。非常感谢你抽时间来聊。这次交流真的很精彩。我也祝你后面继续顺利。我是真心希望你能一路把 Nvidia 拿到 1000，因为我很想说，我身边真的认识一个人是一路坐上去的。至于我自己，我没有持有 Nvidia。我不是股票交易员。当然，如果我胆子够大，完全可以在 401(k) 里去买它。但我最近一直在非常明确地讲一件事：别再做空 Nvidia 了，真的该停了。我自己更偏 mass psychology 这一路，而我最近听到的声音，几乎清一色都是在想办法做空 Nvidia。我只能不停地说：你们真的得停下来。

I get it. You don’t have to be long, but you have to stop shorting it. Today could be the top for all I know. I don’t know what the future brings, but you can’t just short new highs every freaking day. It’s the exact opposite of what you’re supposed to be doing. It’s the exact opposite of what you do. You’re buying strength and letting it work for you.

我明白，不是每个人都必须去做多它，但至少你不该一看到新高就本能地去做空。今天当然也可能就是顶部，我并不知道未来一定会怎样。但你不能每天都去空一个不断创新高的东西。那和正确的交易动作是完全反着来的。你做的事情，恰恰是顺着强势去买，然后让市场替你工作。

So it’s good to know someone that actually is telling me they’ve been riding this, because I swear to you, and I talk to God knows how many people just on my Discord, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people that are in the markets, and I don’t know a single person riding Nvidia. So now I can say I do, and I’m glad.

所以，对我来说，真正认识一个一直在顺着这段走势去做的人，是很有价值的。因为我发誓，我在 Discord 里每天和不知道多少市场里的人交流，成百上千个，但我几乎没见过一个真正一路拿住 Nvidia 的人。现在至少我可以说，我认识一个。而且我很高兴。

It’s been a pleasure to meet you, man, and great talk. I hope we can keep in touch and catch up again.

认识你很高兴，这次聊得也非常好。我希望之后我们还能继续保持联系，再找时间聊一次。

Yeah, absolutely.

对，当然。

If and when it ever happens again in our lifetime, if the S&P pulls back 20% or 30%, I’d love to catch you then and we can probably learn a lot from how you handled that and all that.

如果未来某一天，标普真的又出现 20% 或 30% 的回撤，我很想再把你请来，到时候我们一定能从你怎么处理那种环境里学到很多东西。

No, yeah, I mean, I’m not looking forward to that anytime soon, but I’m looking forward to it at some point. Let’s see if it does.

对，我短期内肯定不希望这种事马上发生，但总有一天它会再来。到时候我们就看市场怎么演。

All right, cool. Well, thanks man.

好，没问题。谢谢你，兄弟。

Hey, so I just wanted to say, after thinking a little bit about this conversation that I had with Oliver, to me the most important takeaway is this: I get a lot of people asking me, hey Jason, I want to be a full-time trader, what should I do? Should I go get an MBA or a CFA and then go work for a hedge fund and do it that way? And I’m always like, that’s one way to do it. But look at what this guy did.

我最后还想补充一句。回头想了想我和 Oliver 这次对话，对我来说最重要的 takeaway 是这个：经常有人来问我，Jason，我想成为全职交易员，我该怎么走这条路？是不是应该先去读个 MBA、拿个 CFA，然后进对冲基金，从那条路径开始？我的回答一直都是：当然，那也是一种路。但你可以看看 Oliver 是怎么走出来的。

He decided as a kid that he wanted to be a trader. He went and worked for what he called a bucket-shop type of prop shop, put up five grand, lost half of it, which was probably all his savings, all the money he had, thought oh my God, and left. Took the last couple thousand he had and probably paid a month rent and whatever, got a job in the markets so that he was still involved, learning how to do some block trading or something, and still trading on the side, saved up money until he could go back and trade for himself, which he did, and then he started making some money, and now here he is however many years later, 15 years later, and he’s still doing it. And that’s how he did it.

他年轻时就决定自己想做交易员。然后他去了一个他自己都称作 bucket-shop 风格的 prop shop，拿出五千美元，亏掉了一半，那大概已经是他当时几乎全部的积蓄。之后他离开了那个地方，用剩下的几千美元去维持生活，继续找了一份和市场有关的工作，让自己依然留在这个行业里，继续学习，比如做 block trading 之类的事情，同时在一旁继续交易自己的账户。再后来，他慢慢把钱攒起来，重新回到为自己交易的状态，开始真正赚到钱。到今天，十几年过去了，他依然还在这条路上。这就是他走出来的方式。

So what I’m saying is, if you really want to do that, if you really want to be a full-time trader, there are ways to do it, and you’d better be ready for the roller coaster of it all and have a backup plan in place and all that. But as soon as the guy saved money again, he went right back to it. That’s what somebody who really wants to be a full-time trader does.

所以我想说的是，如果你真的想走这条路，真的想成为全职交易员，那一定会有办法。但你也必须准备好面对这条路里的起伏，并且最好给自己准备一个备用方案。真正关键的地方在于：这个人一旦重新有了本金，就会立刻回到交易里。这才是真正想成为全职交易员的人会做的事。

So I thought that was the most important lesson in there more than anything else. So anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed it. Thanks.

所以对我来说，这比其他所有交易细节都更重要，这也是我从这次对话里提炼出的最重要一课。总之，希望大家喜欢这期内容。谢谢。

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